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Analyst: Nintendo will ship 4 million Wii U consoles to retail

Games analyst believes Nintendo will have a hard time convincing casual gamers to buy into the Wii U.

Nintendo announced yesterday that the company expects to sell 10.5 million consoles from now until March 31, 2013. With the declining Wii sales, Wii U Daily estimated that the Wii U would account for about 8 million of the 10.5 million consoles sold. But game industry analyst Piers-Harding Rolls from IHS Screen Digest has quite a different opinion. He predicts that Nintendo will only ship about 4 million Wii U consoles to retailers, and 6.5 million Wii units.

Nintendo Wii UHis numbers just don’t make much sense to us. Last quarter, the Wii sold 750,000 units, according to Nintendo. And this number has been falling steadily over the past few years. If that trend follows, over the next three quarters, the Wii will sell about 2.5 million units. That leaves 8 million home consoles that the Wii U would account for — hence our prediction of Wii U sales of 8 million by March 2013.

We’re not sure what analyst Piers-Harding Rolls based his numbers on. Perhaps he believes Wii sales will magically pick up and start selling in the millions over the next 9 months. Which is a crazy thought, especially when a brand new console is coming out. Nintendo will turn all their marketing attention to the Wii U, and while the original Wii will continue to be sold, Nintendo certainly won’t be promoting it nowhere near as much as the Wii U.

Via CVG

Around the web
  • AO1JMM

    Keyword in all of that is “opinion”.

  • mac

    lol game analysts these days

  • Shankovich

    2 words: not enough :)

  • Lord Carlisle

    I’m getting tired of all these people underestimating Nintendo. Patcher, Gordon, and now Harding. I hope the Wii U completely blows everyone away, and I believe it will.

    • joe

      LC I’m with you.

    • AO1JMM

      Same here….

      • Lord Carlisle

        Who the heck is disliking these comments?

        • Grodus

          I guess the trolls are here.

          • AwayToHit

            Probably true sadly :(

    • Grodus

      bull’s-eye!

    • gearchin

      just as the wii disproved EVERYONE

  • Wii Uoops!

    My estimate would be about the same.

    • Wii Uoops!

      I mean YOUR guys’ estimate.

  • GalaxyWaffles

    LOL, no. Nintendo still has MANY casual titles and ready for launch and after launch.

    This guy is just trying to be another Pachter

  • Douchuumen

    Really. Nintendo will have a hard time selling to casuals. Really. With New Super Mario Bros. U, NintendoLand, SiNG, Just Dance 4, Lego City Undercover, Scribblenauts Unlimited, Skylanders Giants, Tank!Tank!Tank! and Wii Fit U, AND the console carries on the Wii name, how the hell is it not going to appeal to casual gamers?! Who is this stupid analyst?

    • gearchin

      im a core gamer and i will be getting LEGO CITY :P along with tank tank tank, if tank has online Co-op im all over it.

  • Non-Specific Action Figure

    If thats true……
    TAKE ALL OF MY MONEY, ALL OF IT! I DON’T CARE

  • Buzzeh

    Yes, I completely agree, the 8 million sounds just about right if not higher, but the only reason why the Wii’s sales could magically increase could be because of a price drop, oh well who knows,

  • Kirby

    Says the company that says the wii U won’t work.

  • Draco Breach

    Warning! Warning! Grammar Nazi Alert!

    Please correct:

    “Nintendo certainly won’t be promoting it nowhere near as much as the Wii U.”

    …to:

    “Nintendo certainly won’t be promoting it anywhere near as much as the Wii U.”

    End of Alert!

    Yeah. I’m fussy. Sue me.

    Anyway. I certainly don’t see Nintendo pulling this kind of move. They want investors happy, and happy investors require sound decisions. If Nintendo wants to promote the Wii U, investors want to see Nintendo step up and lead with the Wii U.

    If Nintendo runs scared with such low numbers, investor confidence will plummet.

    • Nintendo Alligator

      Love the grammar nazi thing!! Keep em coming!! I don’t mind a little correcting when I wrong.

      **Note**
      Have you heard about the Wii U???
      You will!

    • AO1JMM

      LMAO!!!!!

      That was awesome.

    • EvanescentHero

      Hey, off-topic, dumb question, sorry…but how do you use bold and italics? It’s something I’d love being able to do.

      • Draco Breach

        The instruction should show up at the bottom of the reply box. If you remove the spacing, you should understand some basic HTML code.

        You use this for italics.

        You use this for bold.

        • Draco Breach

          -_-;

          Wow, my link didn’t post…

          Anyway, just Google “HTML board code”, and you should find something.

    • Grodus

      Dont worry, you’re not the only one that thought that when reading…

  • Indirect

    One of those 4 million is mine.

    • Ravyu

      50 of those is MIINNE! One for all my mario games, another for all my Zelda games, another for my metroid games, another one for my smash brothers, another for batman related games, another one…

    • moosaw

      two are mine!

  • fedster

    omg these people have to b the dumbest turds ever… cant even wrap their minds around simple statistics

  • Ali

    Predicted specs:

    3 GHz quad core CPU
    AMD Radeon HD 6770-based GPU
    2GB RAM
    8GB internal flash storage

    Hope I’m right.

    • joe

      I like flash over hard drive, more reliable.

      • Leonardo

        ye but it costs more, nevertheless it’s only 8gb. :D so is okay

        ps: don’t worry. the wii u is going to be a big success, i know it :)

        • AwayToHit

          Of course it will succeed. Its a Nintendo home console for God’s sake :D

      • gearchin

        dont forget you can upgrade it, and you can have external drives too.

    • jamin

      i bet it’ll only have, like, 2 or 4 gigs… that’s why i’m buyin’ an 160 gig external hard-drive because i’m gonna be downloading all of my games… i’m kinda sick of visiting Gamestop all the time… xD

      • Paul

        8gb flash is ok for game saves but ill be getting either a 500gb or 1tb

        does anybody know if the wii u console will support usb 2.0 or 3.0 ?

        also if your uk based try hotukdeals as they had a 3tb portable hard drive for £99.99 at amazon uk a few months ago

        • gearchin

          respond to you paul it comes with 2.0 usb

  • gPadWatcher

    I predict that the Wii U will be nothing less than phenomenal… selling about half a million units in the United States and Canada. And selling about a million worldwide.

    • NameUcan’thate

      Just one and a half million???? I hope your talking about launch day.

  • Maverick-Hunter

    Well I can see wii motes selling a lot more but not wii consoles I personally expect to see an increase sales in wii games since the wii u can play wii games. Core gamers now have a machine > ps3/360 so I believe those who did skip out on the wii will now double back and get all the best games for the wii and just play them on their wii u.

    It’s truly going to be a super nintendo era where no one can surpass nintendo.

    • NameUcan’thate

      Back to the glorious old days, when nintendo ruled and others followed. still happens today, but on a smaller scale :)

  • claudio

    umm ok wii u should start selling now

    • SanPharaoh

      I want it now too. But…it is what it is…

  • Nintendofreak

    Wow n i thought i was crazy

  • Adam

    Were gunna need a bigger boat! . . . :)
    Mark my words people they will sell out. Im off into a sleep induced coma now can someone make me in november please :p x

    • jamin

      haha, i wish i could… but of course i’ll have to be savin’ up for it in the next couple of months… #13YearOldProbs

  • WiiUPlayWithMe:P

    Okay, I think he overguessed that, but I think he may be onto something slightly. The Wii will probably take a price cut to $100-120 after the Wii U is released, and that’ll cause a short term sales boost in Wii consoles. Most people buying the Wii U probably already have a Wii, so it makes sense that both will sell well, cause they’d both be attracting separate markets. I say about 3 million Wiis and 7.5 million Wii Us. It’ll be interesting to see

  • Ledreppe

    These analysts actually get paid to make these crazy assumptions? They need to get a real job, instead of just staring into a crystal ball all day.

  • logan7699

    10.5 million consoles they never said home.. 4-5million WiiU, 4million 3DS,3DS XL…and 500,000 Wiis and DSI..

    • Draco Breach

      Certainly food for thought. I thought ‘home consoles’ was mentioned, but I’ve been running around a lot this week.

      Those numbers are certainly reasonable if you take into account 3DS manufacturing. My only issue is typical Q4 sales. If Nintendo can’t produce more than a million Wii U units a month during the Golden Quarter, we may very well see similar shortages as the Wii release.

      Then again in today’s economy, much more than a million units a month may be pushing it. If the 3DS can sell around 1.1 million units a month on average, the Wii U should be able to pull similar numbers.

  • FennexFox

    What he said just doesn’t make sense to me at all.

  • Ryu

    This guy is stupid like Michael Patcher..

  • UGotWongGuy

    Analysis of Game Analysts prove that Analysts fail at analyzing Nintendo.

    In other words, enough with the dartboard predictions. If they are going to “predict” something, then use actual facts and figures that can be checked and cross-referenced instead of making yourself look like a fool.

    Seriously, the very basis of analyzing something requires using actual data, not opinions.

    Analyst: n., 1.) A person who conducts analysis.
    Analysis: n., 1.) Detailed examination of the elements or structure of something, typically as a basis for discussion or interpretation.

    Pulling numbers out of your rear is not trending data that is out there. So, using sales data and making it have a strange trend inexplicably would, in fact, not be correctly analyzing the data. Furthermore, guessing how the Wii U will (or won’t) sell at this point is pretty stupid.

    You can’t even pre-order the thing, so how do you know how it will sell? If you can walk in on launch day and get a console without a pre-order, it will be because A.) No one wanted it. B) Nintendo made more than enough. C) Somewhere between A and B.

    So I say enough with these predictions. Give us a date, a price, and let us see what the outcome is.

  • Jackson

    I bought my snes after Nintendo lunch N64, and paid U$89.99.
    I believe that Nintendo will drop the Wii prices to below U$150,00, what will bust the Wii sales a little. But 6 millions of Wii consoles is ridiculous.

  • AO1JMM

    I will be one of those 4 million.

  • Groose

    Yea they will be shipping 4 million WII U,s. TO THE US!This guy is braindead.And 6 million wii consoles don,t even go there.95 million wii,s sold is enough.

  • kirbymon123

    everyone is saying that the wii u will appeal to hardcore gamers but when i ask my friends

    are you excited for the wii u?

    they say

    naah, i probably won’t get, looks to casual to me.

    So i guess when the wii u does come out i will be the most popular kid on the block ;D

  • Oii

    so what, the Wii will sell 6 million? theres no way that is going to happen, I think the Wii will sell 2 million and the Wii U will sell 8 million. NO last gen console has ever outsold a new console nintendo has released at launch. Unlike sony, who’s PSP is still outselling their new PS vita, and the PS2 that outsold the PS3 at it’s launch HAHAHAHAHAHA…

  • Iceman404

    I guess they’re all ANALysts for a reason…

  • Hi8us

    Wii Us are going to be manufactured at the same rates Wiis were, meaning that they can only make a certain number every month mostly to save money and not over produce. If they plan to sell 10.5 million consoles by the end of march and Wii makes up about 3 million of those, that leaves Wii U with the rest at 7.5 million. If that’s true, we’re looking at about 1 million units a month if they start manufacturing in september. That literally means there will only be about 4 to 5 million Wii U consoles available for purchase by the end of December. I think the Wii U will sell way more than anyone of these analyts expects and the Wii U will be in short supply increasing demand like what happened with the Wii.

  • ck1x

    People really act like the casual crowd is the hardest to convince to buy something new and that’s just not so! The casual crowd loves buying the new it thing on the market. It’s the fact of trying to get them to keep supporting it years afterwards is where they become fickle in most situations. Now convincing these hardcore fanboys that feel like Nintendo burned them and ruined their childhood is another story. That’s the other half that Nintendo is going after and they will take a grudge to their grave if they have to…

  • RonaldCoLtd

    I’m seeing the Super Nintendo era all over again. . . Me like.

  • Grodus

    Yeah, he’s right. Now let go bake my gravity defying gavy flavored pie,and care to my pet muntant lion mole aligator thing. Oh, and after i buy my wii u, Im gonna buy a $7,000 NES, but not get any games.
    But seriously, this guys an idiot, I’m going with Wii U Daily’s prediction.

  • Alienfish

    I think I could get more accurate numbers by splattering a wet fart on a page and studying the results.

  • NameUcan’thate

    What the hell is happening to analysts nowadays????

  • rafael

    I dont know anything about sales numbers, but i think that the Wii-u Dailly used the wii sales figures from recent months, while this analist has used sales figures from previous holidays, while stating that during the holiday season the wii does the majority of its sales, wich might be in the millions…

    Maybe thats the reason for the diferent numbers each site came up with :/

    • rafael

      Ive have asked my financial advisers and deeply studied the problem (aka, made a quick search on wikipedia) and discovered that during its launch and march, the original wii had shipped about 5 to 6 millions units, making the 4 million figure for the wii-u seem right and prudent for nintendo, i think.

      But i really dont know anything about these things.

      • Alienfish

        How about Gamecube sales in the same period? That would be the number to look for as far as how well Wii could be expected to sell. Then there’s the fact that it’s more mainstream than Gamecube was so ramp it up a notch. In the end, though, I think WiiU is going to have a big edge on Wii simply because it can say HD on the box. HD sells, SD not so much anymore.

        • rafael

          The info that i found in some ”vg sales wiki” is that gamecube sold about 3.5 million units during its first holiday season (november through march), and apparently this is a very common number…

          If im not mistaken, that should give us some reference :)

  • Imagine – Mario – Zelda – Star Fox – Donkey Kong and all other Ninty classics in HD!!!

    Look, seriously it doesn’t even matter where Nintendo prices the Wii U. Look at my handle….for that reason alone milions will buy the Wii U. I strongly believe it can become the GREATEST system of ALL TIME.

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    • rafael

      Wow! That was like ehhh what?