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Analyst: Wii U could sell 10 million units in first 14 months

Wii U will sell 10 million in the first 14 months, which will be half of what the original Wii sold.

When Nintendo first revealed the Wii U price and release date, video game analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities predicted, within minutes, that the console would sell about 7 million until April 2013. He estimates Nintendo will manufacture 1 million Wii U consoles per month, and they will all sell out well into the next year. Yesterday, we reported that the Wii U pre-orders had sold out at several retailers, including GameStop and Best Buy.

Wii UNow another analyst takes a swing at predicting Wii U sales. Michael Olson of Piper Jaffray said in a research note sent out to Wall Street clients (which was obtained by Wii U Daily) that Nintendo could sell 10 million Wii U consoles in the first 14 months, which would be from launch on November 18, until the end of 2013. Olson said that this would be only half of what Nintendo sold for the same period with the original Wii.

But Olson didn’t seem that impressed with the Wii U. He said the company bases its rather low estimate on what they see as a “disappointing clunky form factor, user interface and operating system”. That statement is quite odd — we haven’t seen much of the user interface nor the operating system. And the “clunky form factor” claim has been pretty much dismissed by anyone who has held the Wii U GamePad (including us — read our Wii U preview).

We’re bound to hear from more analysts for many months in the future. It’s their job to predict how successful the Wii U will be, and whether or not their clients should by Nintendo stock.

The Wii U launches on November 18th in North America, at $299 for a Basic model, and $349 for a Deluxe model. You can find the full model breakdown here.

Around the web
  • Bob Singh

    they need to make more than a million per month!!!

    • AKA-Link77

      Yah! Nintendo will sell way more than 10 m. thats just silly! :D Its gonna be a BLOOD BATH! >; D

      • JumpMan

        half of the blood spilt will be my fault! so stay away from Georgia GameStops… because if you get in my way (signs at slitting throat)

        • Grodus

          Phwew! One state away, but it saved my butt! I got mine reserved anyway, but still.

          • TheWholeTruth

            10 million is ridiculously low for 14 months.
            That 10million will be reached in 8 to 9 months, tops.
            But I’m pretty sure it could be less than that.

            In 14 months, they should be at 18-25 millions, since they would have gotten 2 holidays and it’s achievable for the Wii U.

            More exclusive will greatly help to get thoses numbers up.
            Of course, that will depend how much Wii U Nintendo will produce during that time.

      • just NINTENDO

        Analyst: Wii U could sell 30 million units in first 14 months
        because is amaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        • td,y,i,.

          I didn’t even get a chance to pre order my Wii U.

          • LEGOkid

            Me either Buddy… me either. :/

          • TheWholeTruth

            I’m glad to see Nintendo is selling well.

    • Walt

      I want to know why are there so many analyst named Michael…..

      • AKA-Link77

        Yah. its ironic. . .
        X }

        • Castamere

          How is it ironic? It’s a coincidence.

          • AKA-Link77

            oh yah…

      • Zhenya

        they were born to do this job XD

        • AwayToHit

          yeah but they are shit at that :P

        • Nintendonoob

          My name is Michael yet I am a NINTENDONOOB!!!!!

      • Grodus

        Not to mention, they both hate the Wii U for reasons THAT DON’T EVEN MAKE SENSE.

        • revolution5268

          must be from another dimension.

        • TheWholeTruth

          They’ve never played a Wii in their life, if they did, they would realize how great the console is.

    • NintendGo

      THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO PREORDER YOUR WII U GO TO THE STORE BEST BUY I JUST WENT THERE AND I PREORDERED MINE I KNOW ITS SOLD OUT BUT THATS ONLINE IM SO HAPPY I JUST PREORDERED THE DELUXE YOU HAVE TO GO TO THE STORE THOUGHT NOT THE WEBSITE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • JP

        This is wonderful news.

      • NintendoLover

        NintendGO!! YOU ARE FREAKEN AWESOME I WAS TRYING TO PREORDER YESTERDAY A DELUXE BUT COULDN’T FIND ONE THEN I CAME HOME READ YOUR COMMENT AND I WAS SAVED!!!!! I WENT TO MY LOCAL BEST BUY AND THEY HAD LIKE 19 WII U DELUXE MODELS AVAILABLE FOR PREORDER!! THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • NintendGo

      @ Kyo Saski there is still preordering a where i live you just have to go to the store just got mine preorder minutes ago. it online where its sold out

      • NintendGo

        opps i didnt mean to put a

  • brawl

    10 million in 14 months? these idiots aren’t giving Nintendo enough credit!

    • Nintedward

      More like 15-20 million in first 4 month’s . this guy needs to remove the ps move from his ass.

      • Nintedward

        *14 months*

        • AKA-Link77

          Lol
          “Nintypo”
          ;)

          • Nintedward

            that’s what they should call the little pokemon typeing adventure peripheral and let us use it on the 3ds !

      • TheWholeTruth

        It will sell a lot, I couldn’t say 15-20 million in 4 months since Nintendo needs time to actually make the console.

        Truth be told, if Nintendo would have made 40 Million Wiis, it would have been sold out the first day. But the Wii went into shortages, they couldn’t keep up with the demand for many years until it went stable.

        Again, I’m leaning towards a reasonable 10 millions before 8 months and around 15 to 20 millions at the end of 2013. Depending how fast Nintendo can manufacture their Wii Us.

  • Theguy

    I like how 90% of the “analyst” aren’t even gamers. :/

    • AKA-Link77

      I just LOLd myself!
      X }

    • Alienfish

      Ha! Nice. Almost sixty likes and absolutely no dislikes. So either those analysts don’t visit this site or they’re proud to be non-gamers.

  • JP

    Hopefully they will have more available to preorder as well..

    • AKA-Link77

      Yah i really need to pre order as soon as they stock up. :)

    • Bob Singh

      try ordered from Canada if you live close. I just ordered mine a few minutes ago cause i live here. In USA, even toy r us is sold out

      • Jake

        Will a Canadian Wii U work in the U.S. Do they use the same power system?

        • jat

          Canada plays with barbies. You are not going to find any WiiU’s there! joke

          • Nintendo Power of Canada/USA

            @Jet Canada plays with barbies? Last time I heard, we are the ones that created Assassin’s Creed.And thats at Ubisoft here in CANADA (Joke)

          • Bob Singh

            go away

        • eli seth

          yeah NTSC-U(north america), NTSC-J(Asia) PAL(Europe)

        • TurtlePowa

          It will work, we use the same energy.

        • Bob Singh

          Yes, its exactly the same

  • TheBaconator

    Clunky??? That’s the thing I’m about to describe his face in a second, nah jk, but seriously clunky?

  • Trev

    I wonder if Nintendo is deliberately not making enough wiiu consoles to meet demand so it builds hype and publicity.

    • JumpMan

      yeah, they did that with the Wii and probably are doin’ it now… better get your pre-order in!

      • venomjamaica

        They didn’t “did that” with the wii. They never expect the wii would sell that fast. They made 800thousand per month. But the consumer were eating them up before they could shipped more.

        I think Nintendo have learned from the past mistakes. Check out the 3ds. they made more than enough to stop all shortages.

        • frank

          3ds had a shortage??? I know that WAS true for and nintendo knows that, but I don’t think they had a system shortage. But what do I know?

          • frank

            Sorry meant true for the games

  • GoodNintentions

    The second Pachter stops trolling another pops up to try to take his place!

    • AKA-Link77

      I LOLd at yr name.
      X }

    • Grodus

      Nice name, nintendude.

  • EPICGAMER111

    SO COOL!

  • Dan

    Yeah sadly might be true due to manufacturing problems,,, the wii u controller does look abit hard to manufacture, so many stuff inside that thing, some parts might run into trouble on assembly line,, i think its gonna be hard to find a wii u after launch window,,, same as Wii

    • AKA-Link77

      I dont think so. . . i think its cuz they didnt send out enough. IDK if this was on purpose to build hype or they may hav underestimated the Pre orders.
      BTW i dont think the actual Wii U™ beasts are behind their cages just yet, the pre order limits are based on how many will be sent on Nov 18. And obviously they to send more stock numbers. :)

      • Macarony64

        This is not the same console nintendo needs to have a install base of user has fast has posible or developers would not make newer games so i hope nintendo puts on day 1 at lest 1.55 millions

        • Macarony64

          Each month*

      • frank

        Not having enough AT FIRST is better than having a ton go unsold. I think this is similar to 2006 in the sense that nintendo just didn’t expect the reaction. I honestly thought preorders may end mid-october/november 1st. Now maybe 3/4 of the companies selling this thing don’t have any left. Its great for nintendo and for the continued success of the wii line, and indirectly, us, but it means most of us only have the satisfaction of seeing those like patcher practically going against every they said since e3 2011

  • samuDC

    Look what i found on a game site in EU.
    It sais that we can expect need for speen most wantes from EA to make it’s way to the wii u.
    Don’t know if this is new or old news but whatever.
    Here is the link (your internet browser should translate it in your language):
    http://www.pu.nl/headlines/need-speed-most-wanted-naar-de-wii-u

    • Grodus

      Yoo nead to lern two speel, dood. Didd yoo axidentlee skiip a grad?

      • Collected

        English might not be his first language, judging by the link

    • Nothing

      I am brazilian and this new is new, hapenned in few days and the chance for this happen is 99%, worked too with blackops 2 for wii u and the ps3 super slim model, in exactly the same way,from the same site.

  • TheUNation

    If “evil” Pachter’s prediction is true, there’s a huge (if not incredible) possibility that the Wii U will be the biggest video game seller in the new generation. The quality is in the official seal on all games, systems, and accessories.

  • Yamiryuu Zero

    Well, considering the console hasn’t even been launched yet and lots of American retailers have already sold out, I guess 10 million in 14 months isn’t even half of it. Well, as for the comments this guy made on Wii U: what the hell is he talking about? I wish someone who knew what they’re talking about could be an analyst, because none of them seem to be a gamer.Seriously, I can predict much more accurately than they do, and it’s not even my job!

  • Shankovich

    Hmm, Kyo struck the point head on. It makes no sense to bash something you haven’t tried.

  • JumpMan

    just… ugh. i mean… blegh… emhg…

  • Nintendo Power of Canada/USA

    Analysis these days……

  • James

    The are not making enough on purpose so it will appear that they are selling lots because it is hard to get. Dumb. Make enough for the demand.

  • Marcus

    We all want a Wii. Don’t U?

    • Grodus

      Yeah,Wii already pre-ordered, but have U?

  • EponaVsCrimsonLoftwing

    Well, a good bit of this does depend on how much Nintendo manufactures. They do like for there to be shortages for their new consoles. And fact is, the Wii u doesn’t have that really weird and obvious gimmick going for it. People see the controller, but they’ll probably just think DS. I think this system will sell well. Not as well as the original Wii, cause people just got that just cause it was cheap and Nintendo has good party games, but people won’t feel the same about this. It’s not the casual dream console that the Wii was. As well, people are gonna probably be thrown off by only using one gamepad controller. People just won’t understand that. On the other hand, gamers may kinda get it, but they may not want to venture into this new kind of gamepad technology controller, cause they haven’t tried it and it looks bulky. However, I do think they’ll all be curious enough to try it, and if they like it, they may pick it up. Nintendo just really needs to keep the ports coming in. They need the third party support, cause then gamers will be in with them. Gamers love Nintendo games, but they love third party too, and feel like Nintendo hasn’t done enough with them in recent times, even having a hard time on GameCube thanks to their mini DVDs. Nintendo has been working well with third parties, it looks like from the launch titles, but they need to keep it up. They also need to have the next gen multiplats and not just completely exclusive all the big games they want, cause they won’t be able to do that with all the big titles. They should have plenty of system memory for all the next gen title, here’s to hoping the gpu is enough to get the multiplats that’ll really keep them in business.

  • Grodus

    [/sarasm_protocol_activate] This guyis a genius.Who needs to actaully hold something to know if its clunky?I know I don’t!Plus, statments about things are much more acurate when NO ONE knows ANYTHING about them and there is NO evidence! This guy and Pacther are the world’s next Einstiens. The deserve a medal or something! [/sarcasm_protocol_shutting_down/]

  • ToadTheBarbarian

    I’M BACK! *in Arnold’s voice*

    Oh yeah, Wii U or nothin’!

    20 Million sold by Christmas 2013!

  • smallNdeadly

    Anybody no how many preorder they took so far

    • frank

      Enough to almost sell out

  • smallNdeadly

    Also how does the big N do the coins I’ve read about (im a ps3 owner) but first console getting on release day…Wii U (first to preorder at my gamestop)

    • LP

      You know you want it…

  • SteampunkJedi

    Perhaps Olson played the Wii U and didn’t like the control scheme, and then decided to bash the operating system. The operating system we barely know about. Hmm… sounds like Pachter switched roles with this guy. And I hope the Wii U isn’t temporarily sold out at launch, but it would be awesome if it got close. Not too close, because I want to get one, of course.

  • Jon

    How is this a WiiUdaily exclusive story? Its been on the front page of Bloomberg for crying out loud.

  • Ledreppe

    These analyst’s should be taken out to the middle of the ocean and sunk! By the way WiiUDaily, ‘by’ should be ‘buy’.

  • Macarony64

    is the 10 millions only on america or globaly? If globaly i say that this numer are a bit low

    • SteampunkJedi

      The analysts aim low so they will be less critiqued in the event of higher-than-predicted sales.

  • ReasonWhy1796

    Um……what are these people smoking. 10 million in 14 months?!?!?!?!?! Naw. 35 to 40 million sounds more reliable.

  • Armani

    Hmm They sold out at Bestbuy? I just Pre Ordered 3 :D 2 for me and my brother, and 1 (White Basic) formy GF. Sooo im guessing Bestbuy still has some? If any of you haven’t pre-Ordered it, I will suggest to run RIGHT NOW! haha and yes I Pre- Order it just today in the morning, once I read that they sold out.Even went to Gamestop, and yeah they were Sold Out there.

  • Pac-Man1096

    I preordered by Deluxe Wii U this morning from Toys R’ Us.

  • Solboogie

    Only place left where you can get one in NYC is TRU! Don’t wait or you will forced to wait even longer later! See ya on the 18th!

  • xdlugia

    I find this believable…. if they add 2 millions :P

  • Crapcake

    people who want a black wii u pre order listen!
    go to walmart.com

  • Kahhhhyle

    The wii u will be sold out well into next year. At least until the rest of the next gen consoles arrive. The launch of a console is relatively meaningless. It’s about longevity 3rd party support 3 years from now and how many consoles are being moved before the wii 3 launches

  • Draco Breach

    Let’s say Pacther is right. Though I think 7 million units in four months may be a tad optimistic, it’s a solid number to hold on to.

    That means in 10 months time the Wii U will only sell an additional 3 million units. Worldwide mind.

    If you look at the strength of worldwide pre-sales, you’re already looking at rumors of Nintendo ramping up production. They can easily scale to 1.4 million units per month – production wise. Now, I don’t know that the Wii U will sell 1.4 million units worldwide over 14 months, so I’ll give my pessimistic and optimistic numbers followed by a realist evaluation.

    12 million units in 14 months is a tad pessimistic, but it better reflects the high selling Golden Quarter with the worldwide depression for the remainder of the year.

    20 million is highly optimistic and assumes immediate ramp up in production. It may also assume a global upswing, but it definitely maxes Nintendo’s current factory production ability.

    In realistic terms, I think the Wii U has a good chance to sell 14~16 million units in its opening 14 months. It will probably slow to a million or slightly fewer units per month until a price drop a year-ish later.

    If Nintendo judged the market wrong on pricepoint, 10 million units could be accurate notwithstanding an early price drop. I don’t really think Nintendo is off the mark. I’m just making a ‘what if’ statement.

  • nintenfan

    the Wii would ave sold much more than it did, but nintendo didn’t produce enough of them. nintendo has stated that it will not make the same mistake twice. therefore, we can conclude that nintendo will sell at least as many WiiUs as they did Wiis.

  • logan7699

    This is a prediction..that dose not include the 2013 E3….i think the Big N knew the the sony and microsoft will announce their next gen.. and Nintendo will show Super smash brothers, metriod, Pokemon, Mario and a zelda and a surprise (Sky’s of Acadia 2) ..

    and that is a summing the other platforms make it out in 2013…i think sony will in Japan and Micro will state side

  • Rilind

    This guy is wrong! If the preorders are off the charts, wouldn’t the sales be that of the wii or even better? Boom, I’m an analyst now. I saw about 3 guys at GameStop trying to buy each of themselves a deluxe Wii U in 5 MINUTES. Then a couple minutes later another guy came. I also pre ordered a deluxe, but at toys r us. I doubt, no I’m positive that this guy is wrong. Case closed.

  • Alienfish

    As far as pre-orders go, I’m just happy that I’m going that route this time. Waiting in line when you don’t even know if you’ll get anything is horrible!

  • Matteo Fossati

    Still more than the Psvita

  • alex

    Best buy, toys r us are sold out of deluxe and basics, GS untill yesterday was sold out of the deluxe but have the basic wich I preorder one, I want my rewards points…I read that Walmart have them and also target but like I say this info is from yesterday…I really want the deluxe but I wait untill payday which was Saturday, when on Sunday and just the 8g was available and just less than 10…I,dont think the Wii u it,will blow hardcore fans with graphics but fun and gameplay hell yessssss and that is what I want from Nintendo it is was Sony I,will expecting hi end power cuse that is what,Sony can do nothing else just like MS that,design the xbox,base on PC,games

  • angel

    does anybody know when are the stores getting any more wii u

  • The incredible sandwich

    i think nintendo will sell 20 million by 2014